2026 NBA Draft Post-Draft Analytical Prospect Rankings

With the 2026 NBA Draft officially in the books, it's time to release my analytical prospect model's post-draft rankings, which rank each prospect based on their draft capital, production, and size. The numbers you will see for each category below indicate the percentile ranking among over 700 prospects since 2014. For example, Cam Boozer has a post-draft prospect score of 99.0, meaning his post-draft prospect score ranks in the 99th percentile among all prospects since 2014.

Below my rankings, I will attach notes regarding some notable placements to explain why my model placed players where it did. Also, to clarify the positions for each prospect, I have three position buckets in my database: guards, wings, and bigs. At the beginning of the draft process, I had Cam Boozer and Allen Graves listed as bigs, but I decided to change that so my bigs bucket consisted mostly of true centers.

Without further ado, here are my model's post-draft prospect rankings.

Explaining the Model

Cam Boozer has the 8th-highest post-draft prospect score in my model among all prospects since 2014. He is truly one of the best prospects we've seen in recent memory, and he nearly has a perfect profile. He was amazing in high school, he had an all-time great freshman season at Duke, and he has a tremendous combination of raw strength, interior scoring, playmaking, shooting, and rebounding. His rim protection is pretty weak, but he has enough skill not to be pigeon-holed as a pure big man.

My model's first surprising ranking is Caleb Wilson at No. 2. He was the No. 4 player on the consensus big board, but my model loves him because he was incredibly productive at a young age, he has amazing positional size, and he's very skilled for his age. He needs to improve as a shooter, but he's already an elite interior scorer who can pass well for a wing and is an elite rebounder and defensive playmaker.

My model gives each prospect an offense and defense score based on their production relative to their position, and Wilson joins Cam Boozer and Cooper Flagg as the only wing prospects since 2014 with a 99th percentile offense and defense score.

Now, why is Darryn Peterson at No. 3 and why is AJ Dybantsa at No. 4? Both are great prospects, but Peterson is held back a bit due to his size. My model is skewed towards big-sized prospects, and that hurts Peterson a bit. He also had severe playmaking issues at Kansas, but he also has a top-11 production score in my model.

I tried out different versions of my model, and if the size component were weighted differently, Peterson could be as high as No. 1 in this class. He's an amazing prospect. My model simply prefers the combination of skill and size that you get with Boozer and Wilson.

Dybantsa is a bit of a different story, given the issues with his production profile. My wing production model cares a lot about defense, and Dybantsa has a 62nd-percentile defense score. Not horrible, but that holds him back from being a top-three prospect in my model. Of course, Dybantsa is an amazing offensive prospect who's an elite scorer and playmaker for his position. He has a great chance to be an amazing player; he just happens to be in the same class as a few other historic statistical prospects.

My model has a few guys really high in the top 10, including Yaxel Lendeborg, Hannes Steinbach, and Nate Ament. Lendeborg's situation is very simple. Despite being a senior citizen, he's a massive wing who's elite as an interior scorer, passer, rebounder, and rim protector for his position. He had a wild journey in college, which led to him breaking out late, but he dominated once he started playing D1 college basketball.

Steinbach is a weird player that my model loves. He has a good frame for a big man, and he is one of the best rebounders in this class. He also has some serious shooting upside. I wish his finishing and playmaking numbers were better, but he does a good job limiting turnovers and generates steals at a high rate for a big man. I'm probably lower on Steinbach than my model, but I can see why a model would be interested in him.

Nate Ament is a super interesting prospect. Most people in the draft community hate his profile, but I think his production is very underrated. His scoring profile is admittedly pretty rough. He needs to be much more efficient, but his playmaking and rebounding numbers at Tennessee were good for a wing. He was also fairly active as a defender.

He isn't elite in any area, but he's above average in many, and that was enough for my model to like this young 6'10 wing. I wouldn't rank Ament this high due to his underwhelming length, lack of shooting, and lack of elite skills, but I understand why my model ended up ranking him highly.

Now, let's talk a bit about Dailyn Swain. My model loves him, and so do I. He's a tall wing who is awesome as a finisher, can shoot free throws, is a great passer for a wing, is super disruptive on defense, and can rebound well. If his shooting develops, we're looking at a star in the NBA.

A few guys my model is low on include Darius Acuff Jr. and Chris Cenac Jr. Darius Acuff has an amazing offensive profile, and his creation ability is special. However, he is a horrific defender, and my model does care about defense for guard prospects. If my model were slanted towards offense for guards, Acuff would be much higher in my rankings. Trae Young ranks 9th in the 2018 class according to my model for the same reason.

I think Cenac is an interesting prospect personally, but his profile is kind of a mess. His physical tools are insane as he has an incredible 7'5 wingspan, and he utilizes this absurd length to finish at the basket at a high rate and grab a ton of rebounds. My model is concerned by his low block numbers and his tendency to shoot jumpers all the time. Cenac simply doesn't play like a big man, and he needs to be so skilled to make that work.