Can Indiana Go Back-to-Back?
- Ryan McCrary
- 1 hour ago
- 7 min read
Last season, the Indiana Hoosiers came out of nowhere and went 16-0 as they won the first national championship in program history. They went from being one of the worst teams in the country to being one of the best teams in recent memory.
Now, they have to defend their title. And they’ll have to do it without their Heisman-winning quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, and other players who either graduated or went to the NFL, like Omari Cooper, Jr., De’Angelo Ponds, and Elijah Sarrat.
Today, we’ll explore how Indiana retooled its roster this offseason and whether or not they have done enough to go back-to-back and win another championship.
Replacing Fernando Mendoza
One of the biggest reasons why Indiana was so successful last season is that it had the best quarterback in the nation, Fernando Mendoza, who put up the best season by a quarterback in program history while winning the Heisman Trophy. His accuracy to all levels of the field and his ability to pick apart defenses in the middle of the field made him so tough to defend. Replacing him will be incredibly difficult.
This offseason, the Hoosiers brought in TCU quarterback Josh Hoover as a transfer, and he is set to be their QB1. If you look at his stats from the last two seasons, they look very solid. His interception rate was higher than you'd like, but he was fairly efficient as a passer for the Horned Frogs.
Unfortunately, his advanced numbers tell a different story. This past season, Hoover had 24 big-time throws compared to 21 turnover-worthy plays according to PFF. He also had a turnover-worthy play rate of 4.4%, which is insanely high. Protecting the football is something he has struggled with his entire career.
On top of this, his pressure-to-sack rate went up from 11.8% in 2024 to 18.3% in 2025, and his passing production on short and intermediate throws was iffy last season. This pill would be easier to swallow if he were a high-level runner, but he doesn't produce as a rusher outside the pocket. All of this makes it seem likely that Indiana's offense will take a big step back after losing Mendoza.
But what if I told you there are reasons to be optimistic about Hoover's fit with the Hoosiers?
Last year, Indiana's passing attack was incredible because they could attack the middle of the field at will, and they destroyed man coverage on the outside with back shoulder throws.
Below is Hoover's passing chart from last season. Most of his attempts were between the numbers, and he was very efficient throwing between the numbers to the intermediate part of the field. He was also efficient throwing outside the numbers deep down the field.
This throw against North Carolina was really impressive. On 3rd and 20, UNC ran cover 3 to prevent a big play but the Tar Heels left the middle of the field open. Hoover saw this imediately, and hit his tight end over the middle of the field between two defenders for a big gain.
Here's a throw that highlight's Hoover's ability to push the ball down the field and outside the numbers. Neither the TV copy nor the All-22 do a great job of showing what Houston's defense did on this play, but Hoover did a great job of layering this throw over the cornerback and away from the safety so his receiver who catch the pass without worrying about either defender making a play on the football.
If Indiana continues to employ the passing philosophy it did last season, I think Hoover's production could improve a lot. He fits what the Hoosiers want to do offensively, and this is a case where, although his past production is concerning, we can't dismiss him because the underlying data shows that his process meshes well with Indiana's process.
Watch Out For Charlie Becker
Last season, Indiana's receiving core was led by Omari Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt, who were both named to the All-Big Ten second team before declaring for the NFL Draft. Those guys were awesome, but the Hoosiers had a third receiver who was sneakily the most efficient pass catcher of the group: Charlie Becker.
I freaking love this guy. He's a big receiver at 6'4 and 207 lbs., and he plays like it. He doesn't utilize his size to break tackles and generate extra yards after the catch, but he definitely uses it to come down with tough catches in tight coverage. In 2025, he caught 13 of his 17 contested targets for a contested catch rate of 76.5%, which is an absurd mark.
His ability to high-point the ball was on full display against Penn State. He had multiple insane contested catches, including this one late in the fourth quarter that helped Indiana score what would be the game-winning touchdown.
Last year, Beck also shined as a deep threat, and you can argue he was one of the better deep threats in the Power-Four. 37.8% of his targets were deep targets, and this was the 10th-highest rate among P4 receivers. He was quite efficient on these targets, sporting a passer rating of 142.8, the 13th-best mark in the P4.
Becker is so effective on deep targets because he has really solid releases on the line of scrimmage and he has the speed to outrun defensive backs. He's not the most fluid route runner, but his physical playstyle makes up for this.
The last thing I want to note about Becker is how good he is against man coverage because this might be his best trait. Last season, he was unbelievably effective against man coverage, averaging 5.0 yards per route run against this coverage scheme. No other P4 receiver averaged 5+ Y/RR vs. man, and only three other receivers averaged 4+ Y/RR vs. man.
All of this is why Becker led the Hoosiers in efficiency metrics like Y/RR and passer rating when targeted. Sarratt and Cooper got the most targets, but they didn't make the most of them as Becker did. Becker was so good in his role that he ranked second in the P4 in Y/RR only behind the great Jeremiah Smith.
We'll see how Becker fares with a bigger role this year, but I think it's clear that he has some legitimately insane traits. His combination of size, athleticism, and physicality is legit, and you won't find many players who are this good at catching the ball, generating big plays down the field, and torching man coverage.
My only major concern with Becker is his reliance on contested targets. Last season, 37.8% of his targets were contested, and that is crazy high. If that continues, it'll be hard for him to continue to produce elite efficiency unless he has outlier contested catch production once again.
Still, I'm excited to see what Charlie Becker looks like this upcoming season because his skill level is pretty incredible and he has so much upside. Indiana's coaching staff should be able to maximize his talent and hide his weaknesses when possible.
Can Indiana's Secondary Hold Up?
Indiana's offense got a lot of recognition last season because Fernando Mendoza went on a Heisman campaign, but the Hoosiers were hyper elite on defense. They had one of the more effective defensive units in the nation, and their secondary played a big role in their success on this side of the ball.
Unfortunately, Indiana lost some key defensive backs this offseason, including D'Angelo Ponds, Devan Boykin, and Louis Moore, who all went to the NFL. Replacing these guys is going to be extremely difficult because all three players had a PFF Grade of at least 80, with Ponds and Boykin being the two highest-graded defenders on the team.
Ponds specifically was a menace last season. He was unbelievable as a do-it-all corner who could cover at an elite level while also providing insane run defense for a corner. He might be a short king, a demographic we respect in this house, but he is one of the better college cornerbacks in recent memory.
So who's replacing these guys in the starting lineup? According to Ourlads, outside corner A.J. Harris, safety Preston Zachman, and nickleback Byron Baldwin Jr. will be stepping up and taking over for these guys.
A.J. Harris is somewhat of an interesting player. He spent the last two seasons at Penn State and played fairly well in 2024 before falling off a cliff in 2025. In 2024, he didn't give up a ton of catches, but in 2025, dudes were catching everything against him, and he wasn't much of a ball hawk. We'll see if he can get back to playing at the level he did in 2024, because the Hoosiers will need it.
Preston Zachman could be a solid addition to this defense. He spent the last four seasons at Wisconsin, and he played decently well the last two seasons. He wasn't elite by any means, but he was solid as both a tackler and in coverage. I don't expect Zachman to be a game-changer, but he should be a good starter for Indiana.
Byron Baldwin Jr. is a complete wildcard. He's only played 39 snaps in college, and the results were pretty disappointing during that limited playing time. If he is indeed a full-time starter, he may be the weak link in the Hoosiers' defense. I hope this isn't the case, though, and I'd love to see Baldwin Jr. play well during his first season as a full-time starter.
Thankfully for Indiana, defensive linemen Kellan Wyatt and Stephen Daley are both returning after a district court ruling in Colorado gave them an additional season of eligibility. Both players were huge parts of their elite defense last season and they should be immensly impactful in 2026.
This makes me a bit optimistic about the level of play we can expect from Indiana's defensive line. However, I fear Indiana's secondary may take a big step back and that could be problematic.
Can Indiana Return to the Promised Land?
Is it realistic to expect Indiana to win a second championship in a row? Maybe, but I honestly don't think it's likely.
Winning the championship back-to-back is incredibly difficult. It's even harder when you lose so many amazing players like Indiana did after last season. They are having to replace their Heisman winning quarterback, their top two receivers, and their historically good outside cornerback. That's a lot to make up for.
If any coaching staff can do it, it's this one. I'm not counting this team out because Curt Cignetti is special. However he has a steep hill to climb. If this team does win it all once again, Curt Cignetti will be deserving of some very uncomfortable conversations.
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