It's True...Bo Nix is Playing Scared

The Denver Broncos just took down the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football, winning 17-14 after Will Lutz hit a 53-yard field goal in overtime. The Broncos are 4-2 to start the season, and they are winning games despite facing a very difficult schedule.

However, the narrative surrounding this team has not been as positive as you’d expect, considering they are winning games. That is largely due to the struggles of their starting quarterback, Bo Nix.

Nix has come under heavy fire after a sluggish start to the season. He’s completing just 60.3% of his passes and has just six touchdowns through six games. His supporters might point to his 1.6% INT% and 4.1% SK% as evidence that he’s actually playing well within the Broncos’ offense. This would be worthwhile to consider, if not for the fact that there is a specific reason why he isn’t putting the ball in harm's way or taking sacks.

He’s playing scared.

This is a bold claim to make about an NFL quarterback. Some will consider it disrespectful. It may be blunt, but I don’t say this because I have a vendetta against Bo Nix. It is simply an objective fact that he is playing with a severe lack of aggression that is truly unprecedented.

Subscribe

According to boxscorescout.com, Nix is averaging just 4.9 air yards per pass attempt (31st), and just 5.8% of his completions have been 20+ yards downfield (30th). In the chart below, you can see that Bo Nix is in a league of his own in this regard, and that is not a good thing.

There are other quarterbacks who haven't been very aggressive passers this year, like Cam Ward, Jacoby Brissett, and Jalen Hurts. However, none of them are throwing the ball below five yards consistently the way Nix is.

Nix's lack of aggression isn't just rare for 2026. It's quite rare historically. Below, you can see every quarterback since 2018 who averaged less than 6.0 intended air yards per pass attempt and had a touchdown rate of less than 4% per Pro Football Reference (min. 150 attempts).

From a process standpoint, Bo Nix is operating like some of the least explosive passers we've seen in recent memory. He's right next to 2020 Alex Smith in terms of IAY/PA, and that season, Smith was returning from a severe compound fracture and life-threatening leg infection that nearly cost him his right leg!

The consequences of this playstyle are detrimental. If a quarterback is incapable of pushing the ball down the field, that allows defenses to give less cushion in coverage, play more press coverage, put more defenders in the box, and utilize more single high safety looks. If a defense can do that, they will be better prepared to defend the run and that causes even more issues for a team's offense.

In response to this, Nix's supporters may point to his low INT% and SK% as evidence that he's playing well within the Broncos' offense. It's true that Nix is excelling in these areas. In fact, he's been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year at limiting negative plays.

This is awesome. By not turning the ball over and limiting sacks, Bo Nix should be able to generate some efficient offense, right? Unfortunately, that has not been the case. He's actually been one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this year, ranking in the bottom 10 in both EPA/Play and success rate.

Nix isn't generating enough explosive plays for the Broncos to put a lot of points on the board, but that's not the only issue. He isn't even moving the chains consistently, and I have a theory that his refusal to run with the football has something to do with this.

QB scrambles are a ridiculously efficient play on average. Nix is a solid athlete who can definitely use his legs, but the strange thing is he doesn't. At least, he hasn't this year, as he is scrambling just one time per game and averaging a measly 6.2 rushing yards per game. That makes him one of the least productive rushing quarterbacks in the NFL.

It is impossible to be great in the NFL if you refuse to throw the ball downfield and run with the football. Simply limiting bad plays isn't enough. You also have to make the good ones too, and those require taking risks. It seems like Bo Nix simply isn't comfortable taking risks at the moment, and it is crushing his team. He's not the only problem with this offense, as the run game has been average and the offensive line hasn't been as good as it was last season. Still, I'd argue Nix is the biggest problem at hand.