Week Five College Football Resume Rankings
We are now a quarter of the way through the season, which means it's time for the first edition of my analytical resume rankings for every team in the country. These rankings are created using ESPN's strength of record and football power index metrics and how these two metrics have correlated to the final playoff rankings that the committee has released going back to 2014.
These metrics essentially tell us how impressive each team's record is relative to their schedule (SOR) and how good each team is based on their on-field performance and how talented each roster is (FPI).
My rankings are listed below, and each team's ranking can be found under the resume score header. To the right of that, you can see where each team ranks in SOR and FPI. Next to that, you can see where each team would rank if you weighted SOR and FPI in different ways (50/50 split, 75% resume, 75% team strength). You can also see where each team's ceiling and floor are based on all of this data. Think of this as their highest possible rating and lowest possible ranking.
Keep in mind that these rankings do not consider the AP poll or the preseason rankings at all. This means that there are going to be huge differences between my rankings and the AP poll because my rankings do not have an anchor bias towards the rankings from last week or the rankings from the preseason. My rankings simply evaluate each team's entire body of work each week without care for the rankings from the past. This is why you will see some rankings that might seem strange.
Explaining the Rankings
Texas comes in at No. 1, which is no surprise. The Longhorns have wins against Ohio State (3rd in FPI) and Tennessee (11th in FPI) while ranking No. 4 in FPI. Texas may not be the best team in the nation by power rankings, but having a win against a top-five team and a top-fifteen team by week five is very impressive.
Florida has had a great start to the season and now comes in at No. 2 in my rankings after wins against Auburn (24th in FPI) and Ole Miss (19th in FPI) the last two weeks. The Gators are quickly putting together a great body of work, and if they continue to play well and improve their FPI, they can finish the season with a very high ranking and a playoff spot.
Alabama is at No. 3 in my rankings, and I think this team is very underrated by AP voters. The Crimson Tide have not beaten a top-25 team yet, so it's easy to dismiss their resume as not being impressive. However, they do have three wins against top-50 teams per FPI (South Carolina (33rd in FPI), Kentucky (36th in FPI), and Florida State (45th in FPI).
Historically, these types of wins matter because, at the end of the year, they give a team's resume depth, which can overcome an underwhelming loss or cement a resume as being truly special. Alabama is a great team that is playing at a high level early this season. It'll be interesting to see how this team handles the tougher parts of its schedule moving forward.
Next up is Georgia at No. 4. Bulldogs fans might be pissed to see their favorite team outside the top two, but my ranking system does view them favorably. My rankings like Georgia a lot because they have a win against Oklahoma (21st in FPI) and are arguably the best team in the nation, coming in at No. 1 in FPI.
Georgia is No. 8 in FPI largely because the Arkansas win is not super notable (60th in FPI). But having a win against a top-25 team and being elite in the power rankings is enough for Georgia to be top-four heading into week five. If Georgia continues to handle its business, it should be competing for the No. 1 spot at the end of the year.
At No. 5 and No. 6, we have two teams from Mississippi. Mississippi State is this high because it is 4-0 and has two top-50 wins (South Carolina (33rd in FPI) and Missouri (35th in FPI)). This is good enough for the Bulldogs to rank No. 4 in SOR. They are 20th in FPI, so they aren't a truly elite team, but the resume is very good early in the season.
Ole Miss being No. 6 after losing surprised me at first, but the Rebels have a very strong resume right now. Yes, they just lost to Florida and got dominated. However, Ole Miss has made up for this loss with wins against LSU (8th in FPI) and Louisville (31st in FPI). This is why it's 6th in FPI. I don't think Ole Miss is a truly great team (19th in FPI), but its resume is good enough for it to be a highly rated team.
Iowa at No. 7 might raise some eyebrows, but remember, these rankings are heavily based on resumes, and the Hawkeyes are 4-0 and 5th in SOR. They haven't been dominant so far, but they just beat Michigan (23rd in FPI) at the last second, and they have a solid-ish win against Iowa State (55th in FPI). Being just 25th in FPI keeps Iowa from being higher in my rankings, but its resume is quite good so far.
Now, why is Notre Dame so low in my ranking system? They are a phenomenal team, ranking 2nd in FPI. However, they are just 12th in SOR due to only having one top-50 win (Wisconsin (41st in FPI)). Notre Dame is still a top-ten team in my rankings, but it needs to do a bit more for its resume to match how talented the team is.
A similar argument applies to Texas Tech, Miami, and Indiana. They are good teams who haven't played enough quality teams for their resume to be worth ranking super high. If the rankings are meant to reflect what we're seeing on the field, how can you rank Texas Tech, Miami, and Indiana ahead of teams like Florida, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss?
Wisconsin is a fascinating team to me. The Badgers looked terrible against Notre Dame in week one, losing 41-13, but they just picked up a big win against Penn State (15th in FPI) after coming back from a 17-point deficit to win 24-20. Is Wisconsin a good team? Probably not, since it is 41st in FPI, but its resume is pretty good, as it is 7th in SOR. The Badgers are a likely regression candidate, but let's give them their flowers for now.
Rounding out the top-15, we have Duke at No. 14 and Kentucky at No. 15, and these teams have resumes that are hard to compare. Duke is 4-0 with a win against Illinois (44th in FPI), but that's really it. Being undefeated as a P4 team is great, and Duke ranks 10th in SOR, but it also ranks 30th in FPI. Let's see if the Blue Devils can keep this up.
Kentucky has a loss against Alabama (6th in FPI), but the Wildcats made up for that loss with a big win against Texas A&M (16th in FPI) in week three. This is why they are 11th in SOR. Like Duke, they aren't a great team, though, ranking 36th in FPI. The remainder of the season might be an uphill climb as they face tougher opponents.
Oregon is low at No. 16 because it ranks 18th in SOR. The loss to Oklahoma State (43rd in FPI) hurts a lot. However, Oregon is 9th in FPI and has two good wins against USC (18th in FPI) and Boise State (29th in FPI). The Ducks are still in a great spot to make the playoff if they can handle their business, but the margin for error is slim.
LSU is really low at No. 18, and I think its resume is being overrated a bit. The Tigers are a great team (8th in FPI), but the loss to Ole Miss (19th in FPI) hurts more than you think, considering LSU was a favorite in that game. The Tigers have wins against Texas A&M (16th in FPI) and Clemson (40th in FPI), but they have some work to do to overcome the loss to Ole Miss. That may sound crazy to hear, but losing to a team you shouldn't, even a program as good as Ole Miss, is not good for your SOR.
UCLA is a pretty good team and my rankings have the Bruins at No. 19. They haven't beaten a top-50 team by FPI yet, but they are 4-0 and have yet to play a GO5 or FCS team (not considering San Diego State as a GO5 team). UCLA also ranks 32nd in FPI. That's a solid body of work for now.
Most of the remaining top-25 teams in my ranking system have similar resumes, including Nebraska, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, BYU, and Virginia Tech. Nebraska (14th in FPI) and BYU (17th in FPI) stand out among this group as being top-20 teams in terms of team strength. However, all of these teams are 4-0 while not having a single notable win.
There is one last team I want to discuss, though, and that is Ohio State, who comes in at No. 24 in my rankings. Why are the Buckeyes so low? This team is 3-1 with a loss to Texas (4th in FPI), and their best win is against Illinois (44th in FPI). Is Ohio State a great team? Probably. The Buckeyes are 3rd in FPI. However, they rank just 30th in SOR. The loss to Texas isn't bad at all, but Ohio State hasn't done anything to make up for having a loss right now. Unless you want to rank teams heavily based on team strength, which is reasonable, you can't put Ohio State as high as they are in the current AP poll.
Ohio State should improve its resume later on this season. I have no doubts about that. But for right now, the Buckeyes don't have a great resume, and my rankings reflect that.
Comments