What Went Wrong: Analyzing CJ Bailey's Rough Outing vs. Virginia
Updated: Sep 2
Heading into the 2026 College Football season, there was a lot of hype surrounding North Carolina State quarterback CJ Bailey. His physical tools left people amazed, thinking about his potential. His first two seasons at NC State weren't perfect, but people hoped that he would take a big step in his development during his third season and become one of the top quarterbacks in the nation.
Bailey had a chance to show off his talent during NC State's matchup against Virginia in week zero. Unfortunately, he did not live up to expectations. He struggled mightily, throwing for just 84 yards, zero touchdowns, and an interception while also taking two sacks as the Wolfpack mustered a measly eight points.
Over the last two years, CJ Bailey has actually been quite an accurate passer. His career adjusted completion percentage is 76%, and he has yet to have a full season with an adjusted completion percentage lower than 76%.
This was a huge issue for him against Virginia, though. In this game, he completed just 12 of his 23 passes for a completion percentage of just 52.2%. Per PFF, he had zero dropped passes, so even when you adjust for drops and throwaways, his completion percentage was a messy 57.1%.
On this play, NC State utilizes a pout concept with the receivers on the left side of the formation as the outside receiver runs a post route and the inside receiver runs an out route. This play ends up working to perfection as the inside receiver running the out route gets open. The problem is CJ Bailey completely mismanages the pocket.
He commits the mortal sin of drifting in the pocket, which wasn't necessary on this play. The fact that he drifted actually allowed Virginia's pass rushers to shorten their pass rush path and get pressure. When Bailey senses the pressure, he doesn't step into the throw, instead putting everything into his upper body while his lower body is off balance.
Of course, this leads to a poor throw that lands at his receiver's feet instead of being a big gain.
Later in the game, it looked like Virginia was running cover 3 pre-snap, and NC State dialed up a 2x2 formation with the outside receiver on the left side of the formation running a post route. After the snap, NC State rotates into a two high safety look, but the safety on the left side of the field went too far outside, allowing the receiver running the post to get wide open.
CJ Bailey sees this, but he doesn't get enough rotation in his lower body when he throws the ball and he leaves the throw short by a mile. This is an inexcusable miss on what should've been a layup.
Another issue Bailey had in this game is that he struggled to pull the trigger and make the right play and he also missed open receivers with unbelievable consistency.
This play is from a 3rd and 8 late in the first quarter. NC State needed a big gain to pick up a first down and extend this drive, so Bailey was going to be aggressive. However, I think he was too locked in on pushing the ball down the field instead of making the correct play.
The Wolfpack try to clear up the midle of the field by having two receivers on the left side of the formation run deep routes while the outside receiver runs a dig route. Unfortunately, Virginia isn't fooled and they stay glued to the receiver running the dig. What Bailey should've done is counted this play as a loss and hit his guy running the dig route to pick up some yards and maybe even get the first if he can make defenders miss a tackle.
Instead, he forces the ball to the receiver running the dig and it almost leads to an interception. Sometimes a quarterback just had to let plays die to save themselves from making a mistake they can't come back from. This is one of those plays.
Here's a 2nd and 8 play from the third quarter where NC State utilized a mesh concept to try and pick up some easy yards to make third down more manageable and increase the chances of converting on fourth down if the team were to go for it, which would make sense since the team was down 24-0 at this point.
The mesh concept works extremely well as the receiver on the right side of the formation gets wide open. However, Bailey doesn't throw the ball. I'm not sure what his progressions were on this play but it seems unfathomable to me that he overlooks his only open receiver on this play and ultimately decides to throw the ball out of bounds.
Remeber, it's 2nd and 8. NC State doesn't need to get the first down on this play. If Bailey reads this play by looking at his receivers running the mesh concept first, he should get the ball out quickly for an easy short gain. Instead, he doesn't pull the trigger and this play ends up being a wash.
Here's another example of this. This time it's 1st and 10 on Virginia's 22-yard line and the game is still in the third quarter. The Cavaliers are super aggressive, blitzing three extra defenders and running either man or zone-match coverage on the back end. Since Virginia blitzes, Bailey should know that he needs to get the ball out quickly. He can't hold the ball for a long time. The blocking won't hold up.
NC State has the outside receiver on the right side of the formation running a corner route while the other two receivers run dig routes. The inside receiver on the left side of the formation gets open with plenty of open space in front of him. If Bailey simply throws the ball with anticipation, this is gonna be a big play. He doesn't though, instead electing to throw the ball out of bounds.
The last thing I want to talk about regarding Bailey's performance vs. Virginia is his carelessness with the football. He had two tunrovers in this game, an interception and a fumble. Below is his fumble from late in the second quarter.
On this play, It's 2nd and 8 in the redzone and NC State is down 17-0. The Wolfpack desprately need a touchdown to prevent this game from getting out of hand. NC State runs a read option and Bailey keeps the ball himself. He gets away from the edge rusher and then makes another defender miss before going down after picking up the first.
Unfortunately, when he went down to the turf, a Virginia defender make contact with the football and knocked it loose. The Cavaliers recovered the football and NC State's chances of getting back into the game were crushed.
There's no denying that CJ Bailey had a horrific perofrmance against Virginia. He had a QBR of 31.0, which ranked 13th out of 16 quarterbacks in week zero. His lack of accuracy, poor decision making, shaky instincts, and carelessnes with the football were shockingly bad. Former USC quarterback Max Browne was on the broadcast for this game and before the game kicked off he said he thinks Bailey has a chance to become a first round pick.
After this game, I doubt anyone feels this way. Hopefully Bailey bounces back and plays well the rest of the year, but it looks like he is a year away from being a year away.
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