Week Six College Football Resume Rankings
Week five is over, so it's time to reveal my college football resume rankings heading into week six. I explained how my ranking system works in this article, but the simple explanation is that my rankings are based on two metrics: strength of record and football power index, and how these metrics have historically correlated with the final playoff rankings going back to 2014.
We saw a lot of changes after week five, so let's take a look at the resume rankings heading into week six.
Explaining the Rankings
After a win against Mississippi State (27th in FPI), Alabama rises to 2nd in SOR, and now the Crimson Tide are 2nd in my rankings. According to FPI, Alabama hasn't beaten a truly great team yet. However, they are 5-0 against the 23rd-ranked strength of schedule, and they rank 6th in FPI. If Alabama wins next week against Georgia, they likely jump to No. 1 in my rankings.
Notre Dame and Miami both had big jumps this week, going from outside the top five to being in the top four. Notre Dame's SOS is a bit weak (61st), but the Fighting Irish are 5-0 with wins against Wisconsin (33rd in FPI) and North Carolina (47th in FPI), while also being 3rd in FPI. I'm honestly surprised that they are 3rd in SOR, but that's what happens when you are undefeated as a P4 team going into week six.
Miami has a similar resume. They are 5-0 against the 70th-ranked SOS while ranking 4th in SOR and 5th in FPI. The schedule hasn't been great, but the Hurricanes have two solid wins against Wake Forest (31st in FPI) and Clemson (50th in FPI). Since Notre Dame and Miami have faced weak schedules so far, a slip-up could cause them to fall far in the rankings.
I know some people will hate Georgia's ranking. The Bulldogs are a great team, but they have the 97th-ranked SOS. They are undefeated with a good win against Oklahoma (21st in FPI), but the pure resume is a bit too weak right now, as they rank 8th in SOR. A win against Alabama next would change that, though.
Texas Tech hasn't been amazing this year, struggling at times against the 88th-ranked SOS, but the Red Raiders keep chugging along. They are 5-0 with one good win against Houston (25th in FPI). This isn't a terrible team, as they are 7th in SOR and 11th in FPI, but it does feel like a team that is destined to have a big letdown at some point.
Ohio State was really low in my rankings last week as they sat at No. 24, but a win against Iowa (26th in FPI) catapulted them to No. 7 in this week's rankings. Ohio State's body of work is very interesting. They are 4-1 with a loss to Texas (4th in FPI), and they just picked up their first big win of the season. Their SOS was not great heading into this week (their wins were against Ball State, Kent State, and Illinois), but the matchup against the Hawkeyes brought the Buckeyes' SOS to 17th in the nation. Now Ohio State is 11th in SOR and 1st in FPI, so they are definitely deserving of being in the top 10.
Mississippi State fell in my rankings after getting dismantled by Alabama but the Bulldogs are still in a good spot at No. 9. A deep dive makes their top-ten ranking seem very reasonable because Mississippi State is 4-1 against the 11th-ranked strength of schedule while having two good to solid wins against Missouri (18th in FPI) and South Carolina (38th in FPI). Mississippi State doesn't look like a great team according to FPI (27th in this metric), but a lesser team would likely be 3-2 against their schedule.
Kentucky and Pittsburgh had big weeks, with Kentucky jumping to 5th in SOR after beating South Carolina and Pittsburgh jumping to 9th in SOR after beating Virginia Tech (43rd in FPI). Both of these teams are fairly low in FPI, as the Wildcats are 34th and the Panthers are 23rd, so they could easily slip up at some point and fall outside the top 10. For now, their resumes are worth giving a lot of respect.
The bye week was not kind to Ole Miss, as their SOR fell to 12th, likely due to Florida getting assaulted by Missouri on the road. Speaking of Florida, they fell from No. 2 to No. 14 in my rankings after they laid an egg. The loss to the Tigers dropped their SOR from 2nd to 15th, which justifies their big drop this week. Florida is still a good team, but their margin for error just got very slim.
Unfortunately, the Iowa hype train lasted for just one week. The Hawkeyes had jumped to No. 7 in my rankings last week, but now they are No. 17 after struggling against Ohio State. Iowa's resume is solid as they are 16th in SOR and 26th in FPI, but it seems likely that the Hawkeyes are not going to finish the season as a top-tier team.
Three other teams had massive weeks and jumped into the top 25 of my rankings, including Northwestern, Tennessee, and Missouri. Northwestern has only played four games, but they are 3-1 after beating Penn State (20th in FPI) this week, and their lone loss is to Indiana (7th in FPI). Northwestern is top 20 in both SOR and FPI. This isn't a team that's hanging on to a lucky win against a solid P4 team. They are probably just really good.
My ranking system was quite low on Tennessee last week because it didn't have a good win yet and had just lost to Texas. However, the Volunteers jumped into the top 25 after beating Auburn (24th in FPI). Tennessee needs to string together some more big wins to get higher than No. 20 in my rankings.
Missouri Tigers, please take a bow. Missouri took on Florida, who was one of the hottest teams in the sport, and they kicked their ass up and down the field. This win gave Missouri the 25th-ranked SOR and elevated them to 18th in FPI. Their ranking might seem low, but keep in mind that they had a loss to Mississippi State and started the season with a weak schedule (Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kansas, and Troy). What a freaking win for Eli Drinkwitz.
Last week, Cincinnati and Virginia Tech were in my top 25, but Cincinnati fell 19 spots in my rankings after pissing their pants and losing to Arizona 34-7. Virginia Tech also lost a very weird game to Pittsburgh, so their SOR fell to 43rd, and their ranking tanked as a result.
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